On May 29th,Zhao Hongshan,deputy director of the feed veterinary medicine department of Shandong Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau,made a report entitled"Analysis and Prospect of Shandong Feed Production Situation under the New Crown Epidemic Situation"in the"Live Public Welfare of Feed Market",China Feed Industry Information Network The main contents of the report are as follows:
1.Review of New Crown Outbreak Response
1.Full stoppage of business,traffic blockade(one size fits all)
2.The price of medicines,foods(livestock products)and vegetables has risen,and it is listed as a house of people's livelihood(investigation,stable production and supply,information daily report system)
3.Complaints about feed outages,prices of livestock and poultry that cannot be sold,and encourage slaughtering and processing,and resumption of feed and veterinary medicine production(but personnel vehicles are prohibited to cross cities and counties,production and sales are connected,and leadership supervision)
4.The feed factory is short of workers and lacks raw materials,and encourages enterprises in the industrial chain to resume work and resume production(guarantee contact system)
5.Supervision,service guarantee,comprehensive resumption of production and production,normalization measures
The loss of the new crown epidemic to Shandong's animal husbandry
Meat and poultry farmers who slaughtered after the Spring Festival lost 1-2 batches,and chickens and ducks lost 6-10 yuan each.According to the province’s annual output of 3.9 billion meat poultry and 6.5 batches per year,this outbreak affects more than 600 million birds.For the slaughter of poultry,it is expected that the province’s meat and poultry industry will lose 6 billion yuan.
It is difficult for the poultry enterprises to sell and transport in seconds,and the cost is 2.5 yuan,down to 0.3-0.5 yuan,and even the chickens are buried alive.For example,Hemei Group lost 10 million yuan in duck meat in February.
The cost of feed production has increased and prices have risen by around RMB 100 per ton.At the end of February,with labor,traffic recovery and free highway free,northeast corn and Jiangsu soybean meal entered Shandong in large quantities,and prices have returned to normal levels before the Spring Festival.
Shandong feed basic figures
1.The average daily output and consumption of Shandong feed is more than 100,000 tons,and more than 3 million tons per month;
2.Soybean meal requires an average of 20,000 tons per day(the soybean meal will be cut off after a week of shipping),and 60,000 tons of corn(the Northeast will not come in and the local harvest will not be available);
3.According to the 30 tons per vehicle transportation,more than 3300-6600 vehicle trips per day are needed for transportation in and out
New crown epidemic event depth impact
1.Raise awareness of biosafety and animal welfare,attach importance to preventing co-morbidities between humans and animals,and curb excessive tongue-and-mouth desire;
2.The agricultural and animal husbandry industry chains are interlocking and one-way fragile;
3.Improve the awareness of isolation,disinfection and sanitation in feed breeding and other industries
Suggestions and conclusions
1.Draft a set of emergency plans(major disasters,sudden quality and safety incidents);
2.Prepare two months of raw material reserves and capital reserves,train and establish two sets of workers(standby cadres);
3.Improve the three links of food safety and biological safety prevention and control measures:raw material procurement and storage and transportation,production process,finished product packaging and distribution.
2.Current situation of animal husbandry and feed in Shandong
In 2018,the province’s total output of meat,egg and milk was 15.21 million tons,which could meet the consumption of 150 million people.It was the first in the country for 27 consecutive years,and the output value of the entire industrial chain reached trillion.
The total output of meat,egg and milk in the province in 2019 was 13.767 million tons,down 9.5%;the number of live pigs in 2019 was 21.765 million heads,a year-on-year decrease of 27.1%;of which the number of capable sows was 20.058 million heads,down 35%year-on-year;the number of live pigs was 31.764 million heads.,A year-on-year decrease of 37.5%.
There were 62.722 million chickens,an increase of 4.5%year-on-year,of which 37.935 million were broilers,an increase of 4.8%year-on-year.There were 278.449 million layers of laying hens,an increase of 4.04%year-on-year;176399.26 million were sold,an increase of 7.01%year-on-year;158.1476 million ducks and geese.An increase of 3.03%year-on-year;54.536 million sold,an increase of 4.47%year-on-year.
Meat production was 6.986 million tons,down 17.77%year-on-year;egg production was 4.501 million tons,up 0.7%year-on-year;milk output was 2.28 million tons,up 1.3%year-on-year.
The feed output in 2019 was 37.786 million tons,an increase of 5.9%year-on-year,accounting for 16.5%of the national feed output,an increase of 1.5 percentage points over the previous year.The output value of feed was 122.89 billion yuan,a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%,accounting for 15.2%of the national feed output value,and the national share was the same as the previous year.Compound feed was 35.862 million tons,an increase of 6.3%year-on-year,concentrated feed was 1.059 million tons,a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%,and additive premix was 785,000 tons,an increase of 8.5%year-on-year.
Compared with the beginning of 2020,Shandong feed enterprises added premix and mixed additives enterprises.
3.Analysis of the production situation of the feed industry from January to May
1.The feed growth in the first quarter exceeded expectations,and the output increased by 1.48 million tons from 2019;
Feed output was 3.09 million tons in January 2020,3.25 million tons in February,and 3.224 million tons in March.
Compared with March 2019,March 2020,the concentrated feed was 112.5 million tons,an increase of 55.88%;pig feed was 756.4 thousand tons,an increase of 45.46%;egg and poultry feed was 331.9 thousand tons,an increase of 246,300 tons.
February output in April and April was 3.5748 million tons,an increase of 11%over March feed output,and revenue increased by 5%over output
3.The overheated development of poultry feed began to cool in April,and the lack of consumption in May triggered a price decline across the board.
4.The growth of pig feed has potential:in 2019,the output of pig feed in Shandong was 7.229 million tons,a year-on-year decrease of 20.6%;in the main areas of Shandong pig breeding in Linyi and Weifang,the output of pig feed in the two cities fell by 41%and 18%in 2019 respectively,Rizhao,Tai'an and Zibo also saw declines of more than 15%.
From January to April,the total output of Shandong feed increased by 19%compared with 2019,and the output value benefit increased by 25%;of which the pig feed increased by 37%over the same period last year;the reserve sow feed increased by 100%,the nursery feed increased by 72%,and the piglet feed An increase of 56%.
5.The price of feed raw materials has skyrocketed
Corn:rose 100-150 yuan/ton in March,fell in April,and rose again in May;
Soybean meal:March 400-600 yuan/ton,with a large number of imported soybeans in Hong Kong in April and May,soybean meal fell to 2700 yuan/ton;
Vitamin D3 rose 223.8%,vitamin A rose 71.8%......
The final feed cost increased by 80-150 yuan/ton,affecting the price of livestock products of about 250-750 yuan/ton,equivalent to 0.12-0.37 yuan/kg of pork price increase.
6.After administrative approval simplifies on-site audit procedures,there are many premix and single feed enterprises.As of the beginning of May,there were 1,900 preliminary feed production enterprises in the province,and 1,839 at the beginning of the year.
7.Feed quality and safety are better.
IV.New policies and requirements for feed management
Start inspection of pet feed labels and companies after March
Start inspection of feed production enterprises and standards after July and implement announcements No.194 and 246